Your Daily Scope and News of What Matters
Consumer confidence fell to 89.4 in August — lowest since January — as Expectations sank to 68.2. Present Situation jumped to 121.2. Oil, war, groceries, and trade dominated write-ins ahead of PCE week.
Canada retaliatory tariffs land Sept. 8: 15–50% duties on roughly $20–28 billion of U.S. goods across 700+ lines. Champagne also unveiled $7.5 billion in worker and business supports after Trump’s weekend 50% package.
Bitcoin price crossed $80,000 on Aug. 25 for the first time since mid-May, touching ~$81,238. August is up ~28%. Drivers: soft dollar after Bessent buybacks, $1.92B weekly spot ETF inflows, and Clarity Act optimism.
Oil price fell Aug. 24 even after Bessent launched Operation Economic Outcast. Brent settled $92.17 (−2.35%); WTI $85.01. Profit-taking after a +5% week as Hormuz still moves enough barrels to keep $120–150 off the screen.
Gold price reached a 3-month high Aug. 24 above $4,680 as Treasury buybacks revived the debasement trade. Spot gold is up about 14% in August. Physical Q2 demand hit a near-five-year low — the rally is monetary, not jewelry-led.
July PCE inflation prints Wednesday, Aug. 26, at 8:30 a.m. ET alongside Q2 GDP revision. Core consensus is 0.2% m/m and 3.3% y/y. Same day NVIDIA reports after the close. September FOMC hike odds hinge on the monthly core read.
Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech lands Friday, Aug. 28, with the 30-year near multi-decade highs and Treasury buybacks doubling. July PCE prints Aug. 26. September FOMC hike odds sit in the 30s.
Treasury buyback size jumps to at least $4 billion per long-end operation Sept. 9–Nov. 4. Bessent says it could exceed $4B after yields erased Wednesday’s relief. Debt topped $40 trillion; 30-year near 5.25%.
Bitcoin price jumped above $77,000 on Aug. 21 — up ~8% in a day and ~22% on the week — as more than $4 billion in shorts were liquidated and Treasury long-bond buybacks lifted risk appetite.
EIA put U.S. on-highway diesel at $5.454/gal on Aug. 17 — up 19.7¢ in a week, $1.74 vs a year ago. Market diesel crack spread hit a record ~$102/bbl. Low distillate stocks; freight and groceries lag the margin.