Your Daily Scope and News of What Matters
July minutes dropped Aug. 19. Nine members held 3.50–3.75%. Three presidents wanted +25 bp. Many said tightening is likely if inflation does not fall. Warsh floated six FOMC meetings a year. September 15–16 is still eight meetings, not six.
Spot gold sold off Tuesday toward the mid-$4,300s. Q2 LBMA PM averaged $4,506. Central banks still bought 289 tonnes. The 10-year at 4.72% is the coupon bullion does not print. That is the trade, not a “safe haven” slogan.
Brent is holding above $90. EIA’s August STEO still has a $85 third-quarter average and $69 for 2027. The gap is a Hormuz risk premium. WTI is cheaper because it is a U.S. pipeline grade, not a Strait barrel.
Fed H.15 put the 10-year at 4.72% and the 30-year at 5.31% on Aug. 17. Funds stayed 3.50–3.75%. That is a bear steepener: mortgages, AI capex, and the deficit, not a hike that already happened.
The Kansas City Fed symposium is Aug. 27–29. Theme is payments and financial innovation. Funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75% after a 9–3 July hold. September 15–16 is the meeting with new projections. Wyoming is a lecture hall, not an FOMC vote.
If a widely expected event happens and prices shrug, the information was already in the last trade. That is a description of positioning, not a law of nature.