Your Daily Scope and News of What Matters
July PCE inflation prints Wednesday, Aug. 26, at 8:30 a.m. ET alongside Q2 GDP revision. Core consensus is 0.2% m/m and 3.3% y/y. Same day NVIDIA reports after the close. September FOMC hike odds hinge on the monthly core read.
Fed H.15 put the 10-year at 4.72% and the 30-year at 5.31% on Aug. 17. Funds stayed 3.50–3.75%. That is a bear steepener: mortgages, AI capex, and the deficit, not a hike that already happened.
The Kansas City Fed symposium is Aug. 27–29. Theme is payments and financial innovation. Funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75% after a 9–3 July hold. September 15–16 is the meeting with new projections. Wyoming is a lecture hall, not an FOMC vote.