What the federal funds rate actually changes

Key takeaways

  • The FOMC sets a target range for the federal funds rate, not your mortgage coupon directly.
  • Short-term yields and bank products often follow faster than 30-year mortgages.
  • Expectations of the next meetings move markets before the actual vote.

When the Federal Reserve “cuts rates,” it is adjusting a target for overnight bank funding. Prime, credit-card APRs, HELOCs, and some savings rates tend to follow with a lag. Thirty-year mortgage rates live in a longer market that also prices inflation and term premium. That is why a cut can coincide with higher mortgage quotes if the long end sells off.

Follow FOMC statements and the New York Fed’s page on the funds rate. Not a timing tool.

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